Things I took for granted: climate science has it all figured out

figured-out

One of the most important reasons why I was a believer, was the deep belief in the accomplishments of the science. It goes like this: science had achieved a lot until now. Man walked on the moon, found cures for numerous diseases, got a 275 ton airplane flying, shrunk a computer from the size of a full room to a small pocketbook, made direct communication through a world wide web possible,… You get the drift.

If science can do that, why wouldn’t scientists be able to measure the temperature of the earth to two decimals? Why wouldn’t they without a doubt know that anthropogenic carbon dioxide is the culprit of all thing going bad? Why wouldn’t they know what the temperature of the earth will be in 100 years from now? Why wouldn’t they be certain about the effects about humans on climate even in the far future? How couldn’t they have deciphered the climate system by now?

My assumption was that if exact sciences, medical science and engineering came such a long way, there would be no reason to believe climate science wasn’t also. In a way that was really assuring. That’s what scientists do and are good at. I could have faith that it was clear and taken into account, at least the most important parts of it.

My faith started to collapse when I realized that the average temperature is not really “measured”, but is calculated in a statistical process, starting from … scarce data provided via … convenient sampling …how could this ever been even remotely correct? When I realized that historical data before the official measurements depend on incredibly scarce proxy data. When I realized that computer models can’t possibly model a chaotic system. When I started to realize that there are thousands, maybe millions of parameters that interact with each other, carbon dioxide is only one of them and the case against it is not that strong. When I realized that climate science was contaminated with politics.

Let’s give again the example of the statement that “if 97 doctors say you are sick and 3 doctors say you aren’t, what would you believe”? Well, we are comparing here with a science that has already some centuries of experience and compare it with a science that has just began gathering data to find out what the essential components of the system are. So let me rephrase that a bit differently so we are talking about the same thing.

Suppose you go to a doctor that measures some data and puts it in a computer program. This computer program can only simulate the human body partly and it is not really sure how much, nor if the missing parts are crucial or not. Yet the programmers are cocksure about the merits of the program. After 97 doctor visits that conclude you are sick and 3 that concluding you are not, now what do you believe? Would you even believe the outcome of programs that can’t even simulate the basics of the bodily functions?

Sure, what science and engineering accomplished is enormous. But climate science, because they study a chaotic system, is obviously not that kind of science. Contrary what the media and the IPCC is telling us, there is an inherent uncertainty when studying nature and climate. Thinking that climate science is correct because exact sciences, medical science or engineering come a long way, is not really correct.

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