The “stabilizing” effect of massive increasing emissions

The claim of the UK Minister of Energy, that some of the measures helped countering the “hiatus” in global temperatures, was downright hilarious. But let’s just take it a step further. Let’s assume for the sake of the argument that UK Energy Minister Sandip Verma was right in her claim and see how far that gets us.

As brought up in previous post, CO2 emissions are going up, but how much? And how much was saved? The most recent data (from 2013) I found were from CDIAC (Carbon Dioxide Information Analysis Center). I used v1.0. The data is in million tonnes of carbon (for values in million tonnes of CO2, multiply by 3.664).

When we look at the data of the United Kingdom, there was a saving of 3.73 million tonnes of carbon when compared to 2012. When looking at the data of Europe as a whole, there was also a saving of almost 27 million tonnes of carbon. That is more than half of the global savings.

So far so good for the claim.

There is of course more to it than just the savings alone. If we look at the other side, we see that only 3 countries together are responsible for 3/4th of the global increase of CO2 emissions. These are China, India and the USA.

As far as I know the pause is about global temperatures, so let’s look at it more globally. This is the difference of global emissions in 2013 compared to 2012 (in million tonnes of carbon):

  • decreased emissions: 50.89
  • increased emissions: 229.78

Meaning 4.5 times more increase than decrease! Here is the problem with the reasoning of the Minister: if it is really true that there is an increase of 4.5 times the decrease and even this extra CO2 has the potential to stabilize global temperatures, then halting global warming should be piece of cake. 😉


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